2025 Elections: Will President Biya Survive the Growing Rebellion from Within CPDM?

By Cameroon Concord Newsroom | June 2025

Yaoundé — As Cameroon stands on the brink of one of its most consequential elections since independence, President Paul Biya, in power since 1982, is confronting a historic challenge from within — not from insurgent opposition parties alone, but from his own ruling party (CPDM), disillusioned regional power blocs, and a restive civil society.

After 42 years in power, the 92-year-old leader, often described as Africa’s longest-serving non-royal head of state, is no longer just facing criticism from the fringes. The storm is now brewing within his own political citadel.

A Crumbling Stronghold: South Region Turns Against Its Own

Perhaps the most symbolic development is the open revolt from South Region elites, long considered Biya’s unshakable base. In a dramatic joint communiqué, political leaders, business figures, and traditional chiefs from the region have denounced the CPDM regime as a "source of prolonged misery and paralysis."

“We call for a sanction vote against the CPDM,” they declared — a potent statement that shows even Biya’s traditional bastions of support are cracking under the weight of political fatigue.

This shift indicates that the ethnic and regional loyalties Biya once relied upon are no longer guaranteed in an era of mounting social pressure and digital political awakening.

Legal Earthquake: Biya's Candidacy Faces Internal Court Challenge

The rebellion is not just rhetorical. A serving CPDM councillor has taken Biya to court, urging the national electoral commission ELECAM to block his 2025 candidacy. While the courts have long been perceived as loyal to the regime, this move — even if unsuccessful — represents an internal legal challenge that chips away at Biya's once-unquestioned authority.

It also raises broader constitutional questions: Is it legal — or moral — for a 92-year-old to govern a youthful, troubled nation through executive fiat?

Grand North and the Rise of Internal Dissent

From the northern provinces, known for their geopolitical weight and historic political alliances, a top CPDM figure declared:

“It’s time for Biya to retire.”

This open defiance breaks the unspoken party code of loyalty and illustrates growing discontent across Cameroon’s regional divides. The Grand North, already grappling with poverty, Boko Haram insurgency spillovers, and neglect, appears ready to reject Biyaism in favor of generational renewal.

Old Allies Turn Against the Architect of Continuity

One of the most striking shifts comes from Issa Tchiroma Bakary, Biya's longtime political ally and spin-doctor, who now calls on voters to end "42 years of misery".

Similarly, the UNDP, another coalition partner, has issued a statement refusing to support any candidate affiliated with Biya, including former party leader Bello Bouba Maigari. The message is clear: the alliances that once helped Biya maintain a national coalition are disintegrating.

A Nationwide Call for Withdrawal

A growing coalition of university professors, traditional leaders, civil society groups, and even some clergy has publicly urged Biya to withdraw from the race, arguing that his continued presence is "unrealistic" and threatens national cohesion.

They cite his absence of public engagement, medical rumors, and inability to address key crises — particularly the Anglophone conflict, which has devolved into a humanitarian and security nightmare.

International Warnings: Democracy Under Threat

Groups like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have raised alarms about pre-election repression, including:

• Mass arrests of opposition activists

• Restrictions on rallies

• State media bias

• Internet throttling and intimidation of journalists

These practices cast serious doubt on the freeness and fairness of the upcoming elections, even as domestic pressure mounts for transparent, democratic reform.

A Young, Impatient Electorate

Cameroon is a youth-majority nation, with over 65% of the population under 30. For many, Biya’s presidency is older than their parents’ marriage. This demographic sees his rule as symbolic of a nation stuck in time, while their counterparts across Africa — in countries like Senegal, Zambia, and Ghana — have seen leadership changes and democratic renewal.

The #BiyaMustGo sentiment is not just political — it's generational. Social media has become a platform for digital activism, and while internet shutdowns are common, the call for a new Cameroon is louder than ever.

CPDM: Holding Together or Falling Apart?

Biya’s traditional style of governance — built on elite co-optation, ethnic balancing, and political appointments — is now insufficient to hold the CPDM together. Factionalism is intensifying, with some insiders pushing for a transition candidate who could preserve the party’s structure while modernizing its image.

Yet, Biya himself has given no indication of stepping down. His rare public appearances, stiff and orchestrated, portray a leader detached from public sentiment but still clinging to constitutional power.

Cameroon at a Political Crossroads

October 2025 will not just be an election; it will be a referendum on the past four decades.

• Will the old guard successfully entrench itself through state control and fractured opposition?

• Will Cameroon’s youth finally usher in a new political era?

• Can the CPDM reinvent itself without Biya — or is its fate inextricably tied to him?

These are the questions shaping the most consequential vote in Cameroon’s post-independence history.

Final Thoughts

Paul Biya’s rule once stood as a model of calculated, enduring control. But in 2025, that model appears obsolete. The growing rebellion — from within and without — signals that Cameroon is ready for a turning point, whether through revolution at the polls or rupture within its ruling elite.

The next few months will test not just the strength of one man, but the resilience of a nation in search of itself.

By Cameroon Concord Editorial Desk
Contact us: abakwa@cameroon-concord.com