Paul Biya’s Return to Cameroon: A Nation Confronts Its Leadership Challenges

The sight of President Paul Biya on the tarmac of Nsimalen Airport on October 21, 2024, following a 49-day absence, has stirred a wave of speculation and unease in Cameroon.

A man once seen descending aircraft stairs with confidence was this time aided by an ambulift—an unmistakable indicator of his fragile state. This moment, laden with symbolism, has not only raised questions about Biya’s physical health but also about the country’s political future, governance, and the transparency of its leadership.

The reactions to Biya's return have been mixed. State media presented an image of celebration, but beneath the surface lies an undercurrent of concern and doubt. With Cameroon’s leadership entering an uncertain phase, the country must confront difficult questions about succession, transparency, and the long-term stability of its institutions.

A Leader’s Health in the Spotlight

The use of the ambulift—designed for those with limited mobility—highlights a crucial shift in the perception of Biya’s health. In previous appearances, he descended the aircraft stairs unaided, but this time, the visible aid underscores the realities of his advanced age and declining health. This visual marker, combined with his noticeable weight gain and paler complexion, suggests a heavy reliance on medical intervention. Observers have noted a possible dependence on anabolic steroids, known for rapid weight gain, to bolster the president’s appearance. These changes have only fueled public curiosity and speculation, especially in a country where any discussion about the president's health has been declared off-limits by the administration.

The Ministry of Territorial Administration’s decision to silence debate on Biya’s condition reveals a government grappling with the fine line between secrecy and security. The ban on discussing Biya’s health has only fed the rumor mill, further weakening trust in the government’s ability to handle an eventual transition of power. For the population, Biya’s health is not just a private matter—it is directly tied to the future direction of the nation.

Signs of a Fractured Leadership

Biya’s return was markedly low-key. Traditionally, the arrival of the president is a state affair, a display of power and unity, yet this time, key figures, such as the Prime Minister, were notably absent. Instead, Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, the Secretary-General at the Presidency, was the most senior official present—a clear signal of Biya’s shrinking inner circle and potential shifts in power dynamics within the elite. Even more telling was the decision to avoid the presidential pavilion, suggesting difficulties in Biya’s mobility and raising questions about the true state of his health.

Reports from whistleblower journalist Paul Chouta highlighted Chantal Biya’s visible distress and her efforts to prevent cameramen from getting close. This gesture, combined with the minimal turnout of party supporters and the sparse crowds lining the streets of Yaoundé, paints a picture of a nation grappling with uncertainty. This lack of fanfare contrasts sharply with the carefully curated images broadcast on state television, where loyal supporters and painted streets attempted to project an air of normalcy and continuity.

The Risks of Opaque Leadership

In Cameroon, the health of the president has become a sensitive topic, underscoring the persistent culture of secrecy that surrounds the country’s leadership. This approach mirrors the behavior of past African leaders who shrouded their health in mystery to maintain a façade of strength—often at the expense of their nation’s stability. The decision to bar open discussion about Biya’s condition is not a new strategy but a relic of a bygone era, where power was maintained through opacity and denial.

Yet, as Biya’s ability to govern independently comes into question, the absence of a clear succession plan looms large. In 2020, Cameroon experienced the stirrings of political instability when rumors about Biya’s health triggered debates on who might take his place. This ambiguity breeds vulnerability, especially in a nation with separatist tensions in the Anglophone regions, economic hardships, and a politically fragmented society. Without a transparent and prepared plan for succession, Cameroon risks descending into a power struggle that could destabilize the country.

A Need for Transparency and Stability

Biya’s advanced age and visible frailty force Cameroon to confront a pivotal moment in its history. Cameroon’s leadership must move towards greater transparency, allowing open discussions about succession without the fear of political retribution. This requires a cultural shift—from the current model of tightly controlled power to a more inclusive and transparent governance system. A peaceful and clearly articulated transition plan is not just a necessity; it is a responsibility owed to the Cameroonian people.

This also means strengthening institutions that are independent of the presidency, ensuring that the machinery of the state does not grind to a halt with any one individual. A more decentralized and accountable system of governance would provide a buffer against uncertainty and create pathways for a new generation of leaders to emerge.

A Nation on the Edge of Change

Paul Biya’s return to Cameroon, aided by the ambulift, is a stark reminder that no leader, no matter how entrenched, is immune to the passage of time. As the nation absorbs the significance of his frailty, the broader conversation must shift from the physical state of the president to the health of Cameroon’s democracy. Cameroon’s future depends on its ability to navigate this moment of transition wisely—prioritizing stability, fostering transparency, and preparing for leadership that reflects the country’s needs in the 21st century.

The next few years will be crucial. The country stands at a crossroads, where the decisions made now will determine whether Cameroon will move towards renewal and progress or remain shackled by the weight of an uncertain past. For now, the ambulift serves not only as a symbol of Biya’s condition but as a metaphor for the nation itself—caught between the old and the new, struggling to find its footing as it looks toward an uncertain future.