Rethinking Cameroon's Future: Beyond Bretton Woods

Cameroon needs more than Bretton Woods' prescriptions

The latest Bretton Woods report on Cameroon, published on February 20, 2024, paints a bleak picture of the country's economic and political situation.

The report, which results from consultations in 2023 under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, highlights the concerning tensions related to presidential succession and current social crises in Cameroon. It also underscores the fragility of institutions, growing political risks, and internal security pressures that could have regional repercussions.

The report acknowledges that Cameroon is facing multiple challenges, such as the separatist conflict in the Anglophone regions, the spillover of violence from the Lake Chad Basin and the Central African Republic, the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, and the impact of climate change on agriculture and infrastructure. It also recognizes that Cameroon has significant economic potential as the largest economy in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), and that it has achieved some progress in macroeconomic stabilization, fiscal consolidation, and debt sustainability.

However, the report also points out the factors of fragility that undermine Cameroon's development prospects, such as the high debt burden, the institutional weaknesses, the insurgency, the border conflicts, and the need to strengthen governance. It warns that political risks are exacerbated by tensions surrounding presidential succession, with potential spillover effects on the region. It questions whether the Bretton Woods institutions, by highlighting institutional fragilities and social tensions, may indirectly provoke unrest related to presidential succession.

The report also criticizes the consequences of structural adjustment programs initiated in 1997, which disrupted the national economy and had repercussions on the rural population. It argues that inequalities in wealth redistribution and embezzlement scandals are fueling social tensions. It calls for more inclusive and equitable growth, as well as more effective and accountable public institutions.

The report's recommendations are largely based on the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board in June 2017 and extended until June 2024. The ECF is aimed at supporting Cameroon's economic reforms, with a focus on restoring fiscal and external sustainability, enhancing competitiveness, and strengthening resilience. The report also urges Cameroon to implement the regional strategy for the CEMAC, which involves a coordinated effort to address common challenges, such as the exchange rate regime, the banking sector, and the regional integration.

While the report's analysis and advice are valuable and relevant, they are not sufficient to address the root causes of Cameroon's problems. The report fails to acknowledge the historical and political context that shapes the country's realities, and the role of the Bretton Woods institutions in contributing to them. The report also overlooks the agency and aspirations of the Cameroonian people, who have been marginalized and oppressed by a repressive and corrupt regime for decades.

Cameroon's economic and political woes are not merely technical or financial, but deeply structural and systemic. They are the result of a long history of colonialism, neo-colonialism, and authoritarianism, which have deprived the country of its sovereignty, resources, and democracy. They are also the consequence of a lack of political will and vision, which have prevented the country from embracing genuine reforms, dialogue, and participation.

The Bretton Woods institutions have been complicit in this process, by imposing policies and programs that have favored the interests of the ruling elite and the foreign creditors, at the expense of the majority of the population. They have also turned a blind eye to the human rights violations and the democratic deficit that have characterized the regime of President Paul Biya, who has been in power since 1982.

Biya, who is 91 years old and appears to be heading towards a candidacy for succession, is the main obstacle to Cameroon's transformation. He has maintained a strongly centralized and personalized presidential system, which has concentrated power and wealth in his hands and those of his loyalists. He has manipulated the constitution, the electoral system, and the judiciary to ensure his longevity and legitimacy. He has repressed and co-opted any opposition or dissent, while ignoring the demands and grievances of the people.

Biya's succession is not only a matter of personal ambition or party politics, but a crucial moment for Cameroon's future. It is an opportunity to break the cycle of stagnation and decay, and to initiate a process of democratic transition and national reconciliation. It is also a challenge to avoid the risks of violence and instability, and to prevent the country from falling into chaos or civil war.

The Bretton Woods institutions cannot and should not dictate the terms and conditions of Biya's succession, nor impose their prescriptions on the Cameroonian people. They should respect the sovereignty and dignity of the country, and support its efforts to find its own solutions and pathways. They should also recognize and address their own shortcomings and responsibilities, and reform their policies and practices to better serve the interests and needs of the people.

Cameroon needs more than Bretton Woods' prescriptions. It needs a new social contract, based on justice, equity, and democracy. It needs a new leadership, based on competence, integrity, and vision. It needs a new spirit, based on solidarity, diversity, and peace. It needs a new hope, based on the potential and creativity of its people. It needs a new Cameroon, based on the aspirations and dreams of its people.