BOSTON (USA), Oct 22 – When the history of Cameroon’s democratic awakening is written, October 12 2025 will stand as the day numbers defied power. For four decades, votes were counted by those who ruled. This time, mathematics has rebelled. Numbers don’t lie. They don’t bend to fear or propaganda. Under any realistic, evidence-based assumption, a Biya victory is not supported by the arithmetic.**]
The Hard Data
According to ELECAM, 8,010,464 Cameroonians registered to vote in 2025. Eighteen divisions—Wouri, Mfoundi, Mungo, Mifi, Menoua, Noun, Diamaré, Mayo-Danay, Mayo-Tsanaga and others—historically account for over 80 percent of the national electorate.
These urban strongholds decide Cameroon’s politics. When the 18 major divisions deliver large majorities for Issa Tchiroma Bakary (as verified PVs now show), no statistical path remains for Biya. Only non-statistical methods remain: fraud, fabrication, or force.
From a verified sample of 5,953 polling stations (1.12 million valid votes), Tchiroma commands 74.1 percent to Biya’s 18.05 percent. With a sampling error below ±0.1 percent, the trend is mathematically conclusive.
Weighting for Rural Bias — and Why It Fails
Even under the most generous adjustments, Biya cannot cross 50 percent.
If urban areas represent 60 percent of votes and Biya gets only 18 percent there, he would need 97.9 percent of the rural vote to break even—an arithmetic absurdity.
At 80 percent urban weight, even granting Biya 100 percent of rural ballots yields just 34.4 percent nationwide. In mathematics, a fraction cannot exceed 100 percent; yet that is what Biya would require to win. His defeat is not political—it is numerical.
The Regional Reality and Moral of the Math
The Centre, Littoral, West and Far North regions alone count 4.9 million voters (61.5 percent of the total). Each shows Tchiroma dominance from verified PVs. Even if Biya swept every vote in the East, South, North West, South West and Diaspora, he would still trail by millions.
To reach 50 percent, he would need 178 percent of rural votes—statistically impossible. Any official tally claiming otherwise would not be a mathematical error but a premeditated fraud.
As Thomas Paine warned, “these are the times that try men’s souls.” Cameroon’s soul is now tested by arithmetic. The data is digital, photographed, archived, and immutable. No press release or military intervention can erase millions of verified numbers.
Conclusion
Across every statistical model, Paul Biya’s maximum national share ranges from 25 to 34 percent; Tchiroma’s minimum share from 66 to 70 percent. The probability of reversal (< 0.0001) is virtually zero.
If ELECAM announces a different outcome, Cameroon will not be witnessing a count—it will be witnessing a coup by numbers.
Mathematics has spoken. Let justice listen.
By Ekinneh Agbaw-Ebai, Public Policy & Data Analyst, Boston (USA)
Published by Cameroon Concord — Political Desk Analysis Series
