Cameroon Standoff Hardens After Disputed Election

On 27 October, the Constitutional Council proclaimed 92-year-old Paul Biya winner with 53.66 per cent of the vote, extending his rule that began in 1982. Issa Tchiroma Bakary, the former minister turned opposition consensus candidate, rejected the figures and maintained that tallies collected by his campaign and allied platforms showed him clearly ahead.Reuters+1

Within hours, protests erupted in Yaoundé, Douala, Garoua and a string of towns in the Littoral, West and North regions, with security forces responding through deployments, tear gas and, in many localities, live ammunition. International media and rights organisations now place the death toll far above the first civil-society estimates of 23 killed, with United Nations sources telling Reuters that at least 48 civilians were shot dead or fatally beaten during the clampdown.Reuters+2Human Rights Watch+2 Hundreds more have been arrested, often in sweeps far from the initial protest sites.

Biya Sworn In Under a Cloud of Blood

Despite the wave of anger and a patchwork of legal challenges, the regime moved quickly to lock in the result. On 6 November, Biya was sworn in for an eighth term in a tightly controlled ceremony in Yaoundé, while security forces patrolled nervous cities and armoured vehicles remained visible in key intersections.Africanews+2Streamline+2

No sincere effort was made to address allegations of ballot stuffing, forged tally sheets or inflated turnout in areas where ghost towns, conflict and displacement ought to have depressed participation. Civil-society observers and platforms such as Project C insist that “all serious evidence” from polling stations points to a different outcome, with Tchiroma leading nationally once diaspora and key urban centres are properly accounted for.cameroon-concord.com+1

The message to the street was blunt: the institutions had spoken, the rest was a policing problem.

Tchiroma’s Strategy: Ghost Towns, Attrition and Ultimatums

If the regime’s tactic is to wait out the outrage, the opposition has chosen attrition. From late October, Issa Tchiroma called a first three-day nationwide “ghost town” from 3–5 November, urging Cameroonians to stay indoors, close shops and halt transport as a peaceful show of defiance.Africanews+2African Percentions+2

The response was uneven but telling. Douala, Garoua and other strongholds of the Union for Change 2025 coalition fell eerily silent on key days, with markets shuttered and taxi ranks deserted. In Yaoundé, compliance was partial, but the fear of violence and rising food prices added weight to the call.

As security forces intensified arrests, Tchiroma announced on 29 October that he would maintain “peaceful resistance” and described Biya’s declared win as a fictitious victory.Reuters On 31 October he claimed some soldiers had escorted him to safety from Garoua, signalling that cracks may be opening inside the military hierarchy.Reuters

By 10 November, now operating from outside the country, Tchiroma hardened his tone further, issuing a 48-hour ultimatum for the release of all those arrested in the protests and denouncing what he called “state gangsterism” and “state terrorism”, including what he described as ethnic purges in parts of the security sector.Africanews+2The Africa Report+2

So far, the government’s only answer has been more silence and more force.

Project C: From Warning Shot to Open Confrontation

Long before the Constitutional Council spoke, the diaspora-driven civic platform Project C had warned ELECAM and the regime against using the institutions to validate what it called “fabricated” or “cooked” results.PAN AFRICAN VISIONS+2cameroon-concord.com+2

As partial tallies leaked, Project C publicly projected Issa Tchiroma as the likely winner, congratulated citizens for “securing their votes”, and urged both civilian and military authorities to “stand with the people” rather than with a “silent coup” carried out through the ballot box and the courts.X (formerly Twitter)+1

Since then, the platform has moved from technical critique to political accusation. In mid-November, Project C’s latest statements speak of a “police-state reflex” and warn the regime that it is delusional to believe bullets, internet throttling and mass trials can erase what happened at the ballot box on October 12.Instagram+1

In practice, their messaging now shapes much of the diaspora narrative, amplifying local organising around ghost towns, solidarity funds and legal defence for detainees.

Rebels in Former British Cameroon Keep Their Distance

While the rest of the country has been pulled into the post-electoral tug-of-war, rebels fighting for the restoration of the statehood of former British Cameroon have chosen a different posture. They enforced a six-week lockdown leading into the election to underline their rejection of the process, but declined to back any candidate, including Tchiroma. Schools and businesses formally reopened in the North West and South West on 14 October, yet rebel commanders have continued to warn civilians against collaborating with what they term “colonial institutions”.

Tchiroma’s claim that he was in contact with leading rebel figures was publicly slapped down. Chris Anu denied endorsing his campaign; Tapang Ivo Tanku ridiculed Tchiroma’s Bamenda visit; and Mark Bareta reaffirmed that no legitimate rebel grouping had lifted the lockdown for voting or called for participation in the polls. A communiqué circulating on social networks suggesting an understanding between rebel structures and the Union for Change was quickly exposed as fake.

In short, the electoral battle is shaping the future of the Francophone power structure; it has not yet altered the fundamentals of the conflict in the former British Southern Cameroons, where the guns remain the real arbiter.

Ghost Towns, Empty Streets and the Price of Silence

On the ground, the most visible face of this confrontation has been absence. Entire districts of Douala and Garoua went quiet during the first November ghost town, with traders choosing to lose income rather than risk clashes or be seen defying the opposition call. International agencies described images of main arteries in Douala V and central Garoua stripped of their usual chaos — no bending hawkers, no moto-taxis, just checkpoints and the occasional patrol.AP News+1

For many families, the cost is already brutal. HRW and other observers speak of at least dozens killed nationwide and more than a thousand detained in overcrowded jails or improvised holding sites.Human Rights Watch+1 In Douala, three gendarmes were also reported dead in clashes, underlining that the violence is not one-sided, even if the overwhelming force of the state remains directed at civilians.Reuters

Meanwhile, food prices in urban centres have jumped on days of lockdown, and informal workers — the majority — oscillate between fear of repression if they protest and fear of economic collapse if they continue.

Local Officials Under Pressure: The Douala V Episode

Against this backdrop, pressure is also mounting on local elected officials who appear reluctant to parrot the official line. Today, 17 November, the 6th deputy mayor of Douala V, Joseph Espoir Biyong, was summoned by the Senior Divisional Officer for Wouri for questioning over his handling of polling station records and his highly publicised emotional reaction when confronted with stacks of procès-verbaux signed by international observers and ELECAM staff.

In a country where mayors and their deputies are often expected to play the role of regime foot soldiers, the SDO’s move looks less like routine administrative oversight and more like a warning shot: any local official tempted to legitimise alternative tallies or to question the official narrative may find themselves facing disciplinary or even judicial consequences.

A Country Edging Toward a War of Legitimacies

By mid-November, three certainties have emerged from the October vote.

First, Biya has secured another term on paper but lost further ground in the court of public opinion, especially among young people and northern communities who flocked to Tchiroma’s campaign. Second, Issa Tchiroma has moved from loyal lieutenant to symbol of a frustrated majority, but his strategy of ghost towns and external rallies risks stalling if he cannot convert moral victory into a coherent political front at home. Third, actors like Project C and other civic networks have become key reference points in interpreting the crisis, challenging the monopoly of state media and regime-aligned commentators over what counts as “truth” about the vote.

Between an ageing presidency leaning heavily on force and an opposition still calibrating its tools, Cameroon has stumbled into a war of legitimacies — fought with tally sheets, hashtags, ghost towns and live rounds. The next chapter will depend on whether the regime doubles down yet again, whether security elites begin to recalculate their loyalties, and whether citizens, exhausted by funerals and empty streets, decide to push harder or retreat to survival mode.

For now, one thing is clear: what began as an October election has become a prolonged test of whether the will of Cameroonians can still shape the future of their republic.