From Disqualification to Intimidation: Biya's Playbook Unfolds Post-Kamto Ban

Kamto, who finished a distant second to President Paul Biya in the disputed 2018 vote, had entered the contest this year on the ticket of the left-wing MANIDEM party after formally stepping away from his own Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon (MRC). His dossier was filed on 22 July with paperwork supporters insist “met every legal test”, yet when Elections Cameroon (ELECAM) published its provisional list on Friday his name was missing. ELECAM supplied no written explanation.

The MRC called the move “political perfidy”, accusing the commission of inventing an internal party quarrel to disguise a politically ordered purge. Lawyers for MANIDEM and the MRC lodged an appeal at the Constitutional Council on Sunday afternoon, beating the 72-hour deadline but harbouring little faith: the Council, chaired by Justice Clément Atangana, has never overturned an ELECAM disqualification.

Interior Minister Paul Atanga Nji appeared on the weekly programme Actualité Hebdo to pour cold water on the outcry. “When names are validated, it’s over for you in 2025,” he said. “Wait for 2032. People should cry quietly, not in the streets.” Coming from the man widely viewed as the regime’s chief enforcer, the remark landed like a warning. Within hours a leaked gendarmerie telegram dated 24 July hit social media instructing all units to arrest a prominent online dissident, Ngatchou Rugero Michel – better known as “Chris Moby” – on suspicion of “insurrection”. Opposition lawyers say the warrant signals the start of a broader sweep aimed at silencing digital protest before it spills onto pavements.

If intimidation was the goal, it worked. Equinox TV reporters who toured the city centre on Saturday morning found the usually frenetic Avenue Kennedy deserted, its shops shuttered and its sidewalks patrolled by riot police. “The population is afraid and stays at home,” one correspondent said. “The streets are empty.”

Inside ministries and embassies the conversation has already moved to the next step. The Constitutional Council now has ten days to answer Kamto’s petition. Few observers believe the eleven-member panel — appointed in its entirety by President Biya — will risk a clash with the Palace by reinstating the candidate. Biya, 92, is seeking a record-extending eighth seven-year term, and many in Yaoundé’s political class assume the line-up published on Friday is the one Cameroonians will see on the ballot paper in October.

What happens after the Council rules is less certain. Analysts say Kamto’s removal increases pressure on the remaining opposition hopefuls – among them Cabral Libii, Akere Muna and Joshua Osih – to rally behind a single challenger. Yet past attempts at unity have collapsed under personality clashes and fears of infiltration. A senior Western diplomat put it bluntly: “Without Kamto the numbers already favour Biya, and a split opposition will hand him another comfortable margin.”

Civil-society leaders warn that the sense of outrage could still ignite street protests despite the current lull. “People are quiet because troops are everywhere,” said human-rights advocate Rebecca Nguemo. “But the anger is real, especially among the young. If they conclude the legal road is closed, no one can predict how they will react.”

For now Yaoundé waits, streets half-empty, residents glued to their phones for the next official communiqué or viral leak. Whether the Constitutional Council chooses to surprise the nation or merely rubber-stamp ELECAM’s list, the decision will set the tone for the final hundred days before the vote – and for the legacy of Africa’s second-longest-serving head of state.